With the youngest of the baby boomers hitting 65 by
2029, the number of people with visual impairment or
blindness in the United States is expected to double
to more than 8 million by 2050, according to
projections based on the most recent census data and
from studies funded by the National Eye Institute,
part of the National Institutes of Health.
Another 16.4 million Americans are expected to have
difficulty seeing due to correctable refractive
errors such as myopia (nearsightedness) or hyperopia
(farsightedness) that can be fixed with glasses,
contacts or surgery.
The researchers were led by Rohit Varma, M.D.,
director of the University of Southern California’s
Roski Eye Institute, Los Angeles, and published
their analysis May 19th in JAMA Ophthalmology. They
estimate that 1 million Americans were legally blind
(20/200 vision or worse) in 2015. Having 20/200
vision means that for clear vision, you would have
to be 20 feet or closer to an object that a person
with normal vision could see from 200 feet away.
Meanwhile, 3.2 million Americans had visual
impairment in 2015 — meaning they had 20/40 or worse
vision with best possible correction. Another 8.2
million had vision problems due to uncorrected
refractive error.
“These findings are an important forewarning of the
magnitude of vision loss to come. They suggest that
there is a huge opportunity for screening efforts to
identify people with correctable vision problems and
early signs of eye diseases. Early detection and
intervention — possibly as simple as prescribing
corrective lenses — could go a long way toward
preventing a significant proportion of avoidable
vision loss,” said NEI Director Paul A. Sieving,
M.D., Ph.D.
Over the next 35 years, Varma and his colleagues
project that the number of people with legal
blindness will increase by 21 percent each decade to
2 million by 2050. Likewise, best-corrected visual
impairment will grow by 25 percent each decade,
doubling to 6.95 million. The greatest burden of
visual impairment and blindness will affect those 80
years or older as advanced age is a key risk factor
for diseases such as age-related macular
degeneration and cataract.
The researchers analyzed data on visual impairment
and blindness from six large studies: the Beaver Dam
Eye Study (Beaver Dam, Wisconsin), Baltimore Eye
Survey and Salisbury Eye Evaluation Study
(Maryland), the Chinese American Eye Study (Monterey
Park, California), Los Angeles Latino Eye Study, and
Proyecto VER (Nogales and Tucson, Arizona). They
used the 2014 census and population growth
projections to estimate the nationwide prevalence of
vision impairment and blindness now and in 2050.
In terms of absolute numbers, non-Hispanic whites,
particularly white women, represent the largest
proportion of people affected by visual impairment
and blindness, and their numbers will nearly double.
By 2050, 2.15 million non-Hispanic white women are
expected to be visually impaired and 610,000 will be
blind. “Based on these data, there is a need for
increased screening and interventions across all
population, and especially among non-Hispanic white
women,” Varma said.
African Americans currently account for the second
highest proportion of visual impairment, but that is
expected to shift to Hispanics around 2040, as the
Hispanic population — and particularly the number of
older Hispanics — continues to grow. Hispanics have
particularly high rates of diabetes, which is
associated with diabetic eye disease, a treatable
cause of visual impairment.
African Americans, meanwhile, are expected to
continue to account for the second highest
proportion of blindness. “African Americans are at
disproportionately high risk for developing
glaucoma, a potentially blinding eye disease that
typically causes the loss of peripheral, but not
central vision, so people tend to not realize that
they are losing their vision and do not seek
treatment,” he said.
See also
Half the world to be short-sighted by 2050
Link...
For more information
Varma, R et al, “Visual impairment and blindness in
adults in the United States: Demographic and
Geographic Variations from 2015 to 2050,” JAMA
Ophthalmology, DOI:10.1001/jamaophthalmol.2016.1284
Link...
Ophthalmology
Global Prevalence of Myopia and High Myopia and
Temporal Trends from 2000 through 2050
Link...
Brien Holden Vision Institute
Link...
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