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One in three people born in Britain in 2015 will
develop dementia, according to an analysis
commissioned by the charity campaign group
Alzheimer's Research UK.
Today over 800,000 people aged 60 and over are
living with dementia in the UK. The risk of
developing dementia increases greatly with age, from
around 1% of men and 1.5% of women in their sixties
to more than a quarter of men and a third of women
aged 90 and over. The ageing of the UK population,
then, will mean an increasing number of people
living with dementia.
Based on the latest official UK population
projections and the most authoritative estimates of
the prevalence of dementia, OHE Consulting built a
model to project the number of people with dementia
in the UK to 2050. The model then was used to
project the health and social care costs of
dementia.
The results show that unless ways are found to
prevent or cure dementia, the number or people in
the UK aged 60 and over who will be living with
dementia is likelyto double over the next 25 years,
reaching two million by 2050.
The report estimates that:
- 32% of people born in the UK 2015, or one in
three, will develop dementia during their lifetime
- 27% of males born in 2015 will develop the
condition
- 37% of females born in 2015 will develop the
condition.
OHE’s model shows how new interventions to prevent
and treat dementia could change this picture
dramatically. Delaying the onset of dementia by five
years in the UK from 2020 could reduce the projected
number of people with dementia in 2050 by one third
(666,000) and reduce the need for informal carers by
566,000; costs of care would be £21 billion lower in
2050 £38 billion rather than £59 billion.
Even if it were not possible to delay the onset of
dementia, slowing the rate at which it progresses –
from mild to moderate to severe – would bring major
improvements in quality of life and less premature
mortality from dementia.
For more information
Lewis, F., Schaffer, S.K., Sussex, J., O’Neill, P.
and Cockcroft, L., 2014. The trajectory of dementia
in the UK – making a difference. Consulting Report.
London: Office of Health Economics.
link..
Alzheimer's Research UK
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